A fresh week, a fresh set of levels. Here is where our mentors are focused across gold, Bitcoin, and the majors — along with the setups we are waiting for rather than chasing.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed last week just below the previous weekly high. The liquidity pool above that high (roughly the prior month’s swing plus a double-top cluster) is the obvious draw — a sweep into that region on the London-NY overlap is the highest-probability move we are watching for.
The setup template: wait for the sweep and a 15-minute ChoCh, then look for an order block plus FVG entry on the reversal leg. First target is the daily mid-range; second target is the previous weekly low.
Invalidations: a daily close above the swept high, without the ChoCh, shifts us back to bullish continuation. Do not fight that if it happens.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
BTC is consolidating inside a clear range on the 4-hour chart, with liquidity visible at both ends. The bias depends on DXY — a dollar breakdown this week likely pulls BTC to the range high; a dollar rally traps any late longs at the range top.
We are not taking a directional swing until the range resolves. Scalp trades within the range on 15-minute sweeps of either boundary are still acceptable, with tight stops and 2R targets to the range midpoint.
The real trade comes on the breakout-and-retest. Patience.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD respected last week’s daily support to the pip and rallied from it. The higher-time-frame bias is cautiously bullish while price holds above that level. Any pullback into the 4H FVG left behind by the rally is a long setup on a 15-minute trigger.
Key dates: US CPI release and ECB minutes. Avoid sizing up before either.
GBP/USD
Cable is the noisiest major this week. We are keeping our exposure here small — the chart is in a messy range-within-a-range and our internal reviews show degraded setup quality on GBP the last three weeks. Focus capital on gold and EUR/USD; cable is not offering compelling R:R.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to respect its rising trendline on the daily. We are watching for a pullback to the prior monthly high — a classic resistance-turned-support level — for longs. BOJ rhetoric remains the binary risk; size accordingly.
The Macro Calendar
Three releases to have on your radar this week:
- US CPI (Wednesday) — primary volatility event. Do not trade the first 15 minutes after release.
- ECB minutes (Thursday) — relevant for EUR crosses.
- US retail sales (Friday) — secondary release but can fuel late-week continuation.
The calendar tells you when to be at the screen. The structure tells you what to look for when you are.
Our Posture
Overall, we are leaning defensive until the US CPI print on Wednesday. Half-size on any setup Monday-Tuesday; full size from Thursday onwards if the structure holds. This is not forecasting — it is risk management. Setups will be clearer after the volatility releases than before them.
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